APPLICATION OF TIME SERIES REGRESSION (TSR) AND AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA) IN RICE PRODUCTION FORECASTING IN INDONESIA

Muhammad  Fahmuddin S; Ruliana; Nurul Fahmi

doi:10.35580/variansiunm412

Muhammad Fahmuddin S Department of Statistics, Universitas Negeri Makassar
Ruliana Department of Statistics, Universitas Negeri Makassar
Nurul Fahmi Mahasiswa

DOI: https://doi.org/10.35580/variansiunm412

Keywords: Rice production, TSR, ARIMA, forecasting, MAPE.

Abstract

Rice production plays a crucial role in supporting food security in Indonesia. The annual fluctuations in rice yield necessitate accurate forecasting methods to support agricultural planning. This study aims to forecast rice production in Indonesia using two time series forecasting approaches: Time Series Regression (TSR) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). The data used consist of monthly rice production from January 2020 to December 2024. The analysis results show that both methods are capable of modeling the data well, with high forecasting accuracy based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The TSR model yielded a MAPE of 13.838%, while the ARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,0)12model achieved a lower MAPE of 13.1439%, indicating that the ARIMA model provides more accurate forecasting results. This study is expected to serve as a reference for policy-making and strategic planning in rice production management in the future.

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